The SONA, in form and substance

As in all public discourses, the second State of the Nation Address (SONA) can be judged by way of its form and substance.

In form, the President aced it in my book. He was dignified in his demeanor and eloquent in his delivery. He was statesmanlike in both conduct and choice of words. He gave us reasons to be proud, with nary a cause for embarrassment. It was also refreshing to listen to a SONA without China’s agenda being rammed down our throats. The SONA was a pleasure to listen to.

But it was less than perfect in substance.

For one, there were data inaccuracies. The assertions that P3.1 trillion of investment commitments were generated on the back of the President’s foreign trips and that the Board of Investments approved P1.2 trillion worth of projects are deceiving. Many of these “investment commitments” are inquires and/or recycled data which have little to no chance of materializing. The actual intake of foreign direct investments amounted to only P506 billion or $9.2 billion last year.

As for inflation, while it is true that it has decreased from 8.7 percent in January to 5.4 percent in June, credit should not be given to increased agricultural outputs and plummeting food prices across-the-board. This is inaccurate. Inflation has softened due to the decline of world prices of oil, which is an external factor. But we do give credit to the Banco Sentral ng Pilipinas for expertly calibrating interest rates and money supply.

The President portrayed the agricultural sector as having achieved many breakthroughs, including low prices in  Kadiwa centers. This too is inaccurate. The reality is that the government has been pumping the sector with subsidies to  artificially drop prices. These include the P590-million Rice Farmers Financial Assistance Program; the P320-million Fuel Discount for Farmers and Fisherfolk Program; a one-year amortization moratorium for agrarian reform beneficiaries and extensive subsidies for seeds, fertilizers, fingerlings and livestock, among others.

Dishing-out subsidies to increase agricultural output is artificial and unsustainable. The first step to solve the  agricultural mess is to quash smuggling, hoarding and cartels. But does the President have the political will do it? We shall see. So far, it seems that these economic saboteurs are coddled by government. Urgently needed too is the upgrade of our cold and logistics chain. Data show that 30 percent of agricultural output is spoiled in transit.

The President kept silent about human rights issues, particularly about senator Leila de Lima and the pending investigation of the International Criminal Court. Human rights matters to us because it has bearing on trade negotiations, notably with the European Union with whom our GSP-Plus status is up for renewal.

We see Marcos’ conundrum. On one hand, there is the country’s interest at stake, what with the said trade negotiations with the EU, the interest of justice on the part of De Lima and EJK victims and the interest of the general public in whom human rights is a constitutional right. But on the other hand, there is the interest and political threats of former president Duterte and his conspirators in the bloody drug war. Will BBM succumb to giving up the interest of the greater majority for Mr. Duterte? This is a telling test of courage and character.

The SONA had its fair share of rhetorics. While the President spoke about the importance of peace and order, a stronger rule of law and reliable justice system, he failed to tell us how he was to achieve it, if at all. He spoke about the benefits of the  circular economy and just left it there. On education, he enumerated the many achievements of the DepEd, capping it with  the declaration that “no one will be left behind.” None of the “achievements” are game changing so far. The education emergency persists.

And of course, the declaration that he “will not tolerate corruption and incompetence in government.” This was a whopper, given the irony.

In tourism, the President spoke as if three million foreign visitors in the first semester of 2023 was an achievement. Anyone could have achieved this, considering revenge travel is in full swing. Vietnam welcomed 5.6 million visitors and Indonesia about the same. That’s where we should be. There was no mention of the botched branding of Secretary Christina Frasco and the waste of time and resources in the exercise. We need a tourism secretary with strategic advertising experience.

As I mentioned in my pre-SONA analysis three weeks ago, the President failed to communicate his plan to address the country’s looming vulnerabilities. This is a cause for worry. I will tackle these next week due to lack of space today.

But to the President’s credit, he had many legitimate achievements to trumpet.

Thanks to political stability, a generally well-considered Cabinet and the absence of actions to disrupt our business and social environment, business confidence has risen and the economy is on the fast track of growth.

The infrastructure program is in full swing and the President has correctly committed to sustain spending at 5 to 6 percent of GDP.

Government revenues have increased to a record high of 16.9 percent of GDP. This will go a long way towards tempering the budget deficit.

We laud the activation of 17 new power plants that infused 1,174 megawatts of power to our supply. We also laud the interconnection of the Luzon-Visayas-Mindanao power grids. This was 40 years in the making.

We salute the DOST for successfully launching two more satellites to be used for geo-mapping, defense and agriculture.

The President’s foreign policy is on point. The President strengthened our relationship with the US and western allies. This bolsters our defense capabilities and shows China that the Philippines is not a “given.”

All in all, it was a SONA that we expected. But we still yearn for BBM’s grand vision for socio-economic transformation.

*      *      *

Email: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan