Unending

What was most likely reached in the NATO summit meeting in Vilnius was a formula for unending war in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky went to the pivotal summit meeting with an unachievable demand. He wanted NATO to invite Ukraine into the military alliance in the same manner that two countries, Finland and Sweden, were invited last year.

Finland completed formalities for membership, swelling the alliance’s ranks to 31. In the meeting held this week, Turkey dropped its opposition to Sweden’s admission. That will grow NATO’s ranks to 32 in a while. Ukraine wants to be the 33rd member country as soon as possible.

Kiev’s ardent efforts for inclusion in the military alliance presented the member-countries with an obvious dilemma. As soon as Ukraine is admitted, the entire alliance will be bound to the collective defense provision in the NATO charter. That provision dictated that an attack on one member of the alliance will be an attack on all members.

Ukraine’s admission to NATO will instantly put the entire alliance at war with Russia. Most members of NATO are unprepared for such an outcome. The perils of rapid escalation on the war are large. Such a move could provoke a nuclear confrontation.

Russia’s army may be inept in a conventional war. But the country is armed with thousands of nuclear-tipped missiles. Several times during her flagging war of aggression, the Kremlin reminded the world about this. Recently, Putin ordered the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to his vassal state, Belarus, on Ukraine’s northern border.

A few weeks ago, after the notorious Wagner paramilitary group agreed to relocate to Belarus after its failed coup attempt, Poland deployed additional troops to its border. The Wagner group, wherever it is, always spells trouble. Besides, over the past few years, Belarus has been pushing migrants from Asia and Africa to cross the border into Poland.

In response to the migrant wave facilitated by Belarus, Poland built a long fence along its boundary with Belarus. Poland, over the past few years, has posted the highest increase in military expenditure among the NATO partners. This is due to the long border it shares with Belarus as well as clear indications of Moscow’s aggressive designs against its neighbors.

Since the Russian occupation of parts of Ukraine in 2014, European member-countries have ramped up their defense spending. This became even more marked after the Russian invasion of Ukraine beginning in February 2022.

When Putin launched his “special military operation” 15 months ago, he made several miscalculations. He miscalculated Kiev’s ability and willingness to resist. He underestimated Zelensky’s ability to rally his people and the rest of the world against Moscow’s aggression. He fatally miscalculated NATO’s capacity to unite and support Ukraine.

An alliance of democracies, NATO has always had to mediate differences in points of view among member-countries over the years. Putin mistook that for fractiousness.

When the invasion of Ukraine happened, NATO demonstrated its ability to act as one. All member-countries contributed material resources to Ukraine’s resistance. They have committed to fund the rehabilitation of this nation battered by Russia’s cruel strategy of bombing civilian settlements and destroying infrastructure.

Zelensky probably understood that his demand for quick accession to the ranks of NATO was unrealistic. But on that demand was anchored a brilliant diplomatic strategy. Realizing the vast international goodwill Zelensky enjoyed, the NATO offered Ukraine expanded security guarantees, more military support and a one-step admission process as soon as “conditions were right.” Kiev got everything it could reasonably expect from the alliance at this time.

Intra-European relations are always diplomacy-intensive. Turkiye’s Erdogan held hostage Sweden’s admission to the NATO until he received the right signals his country would be admitted to the European Union. He conceded to Sweden’s admission to NATO at a moment when Russia was extremely isolated and Europe was most solidified. He wants his country to secure a European future.

In turning down Ukraine’s urgent plea for admission, NATO nevertheless conceded that “Ukraine’s future is in NATO.” The country’s admission is basically guaranteed as soon as a conclusive resolution of the war is reached.

This is all very ironic for Putin. He launched his aggressive annexation effort because he feared Ukraine was on the way to joining NATO. Now Ukraine’s membership in the military alliance is guaranteed. He would have NATO’s awesome defense capabilities right at his door.

Beyond that, Moscow’s aggression turned international opinion against Russia. As NATO improves on the interoperability of its forces, the Russian army is increasingly fractious. First, there was that bizarre Wagner episode. Then a senior general, once in charge of the war in Ukraine, is rumored to be under arrest. Another lieutenant general in charge of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine has been dismissed for complaining about lack of resources for his mission.

There is deepening disillusionment about Putin’s rule and about Putin’s obsession with recreating the old Russian empire. A steady stream of Russians are fleeing the homeland, seeing a better life abroad. The comprehensive economic sanctions imposed by the western powers on Russia guarantees her economy will, at the very least, stagnate for years.

The Ukrainians are not about to give up – not with Zelensky’s brilliant wartime leadership. They will receive as much military support as they need from their de facto western allies. As soon as hostilities cease, they will rebuild their country with support from the global community.

Putin, however, will likely persist in his failed military effort regardless of the costs. Throughout Russian history, leaders losing wars pay with their heads.